Mass Effect 4 is still far ahead from being released and as so, the upcoming plot and timeline are still unknown, however the sequel logic has been the most favorite choice amongst players. In that case, if BioWare actually chooses to make a development of the Mass Effect 3 events, then there’s a great chance that many old characters will be seen again. But not everyone has the same chance to return, in fact, some characters have a really low probability to return to the next Mass Effect.

I’ve recently done a structural preview for Dragon Age Inquisition, revealing which old companions have the highest probability to return. I’ll be doing a similar preview here using logical variables: species lifespan (SL); appearance in the previous games (APG); relevance in the previous games’ storyline (RPG); Shepard’s squad member (SC). I may add an extra variable in certain cases, such as death probability. The first variable is very important since most of the characters won’t be able to live enough if the sequel is too far into the future, the second and third variables are significant because the more important the character was in the trilogy, the higher is his/her chance to return. Finally, the last point is duo to the fact that BioWare has shown that squad mates always return.

Note: 1 is bad, 2 is decent and 3 is good. I’m changing the probability logic to 3/3 from 2/2 exactly because Mass Effect had three previous games.

Let’s review which Mass Effect main characters have the highest probability to be seen in the fourth game, if it’s to be a sequel.

150px-ME3_Steven_Hackett_Character_Shot1. Admiral Steven Hackett (Human, ME 1, 2 & 3)

Steven Hackett has been a vital figure in the Mass Effect world. He was always behind the development of most large scale events in the story and he was the one recommending Shepard for the first human spectre. However, by the end of ME3 he appears to be old enough, which may indicate that he won’t be able to return to a possible sequel.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 3/3 (APG) + 3/3 (RPG) + 0/3 (SC) (-2 Death Possibility) = 50% – Hackett May Return


150px-ME3-Aria-Squad2. Aria T’Loak (Asari, ME 1, 2 & 3)

This pirate queen commands the space station called Omega and she is willing to do anything to keep her throne from other factions. Despite her ruthless personality, she is able to distinguish good from evil. Aria will surely stick around for a long time and if the next ME will feature Omega somehow; it’s inevitable to do not summon Aria T’Loak.

Probability to Return: 3/3 (SL) + 2/3 (APG) + 2/3 (RPG) + 0/3 (SC) +1 (Active Member in Several ME Comics) = 66% – Aria Will Probably Return


150px-Ashley_ME3_Character_Shot3. Ashley Williams (Human, ME 1, 2 & 3)

Ashley has been working for the Alliance for a long time and due to her successful work she achieves the rank of Lieutenant Commander in ME3. If she doesn’t die during the ME1 and ME3 events, she has decent chances to return, she’s still young and a very strong soldier.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 3/3 (APG) + 2/3 (RPG) + 2/3 (SC) – 1 (Death Possibility) = 66% – Ashley Will Probably Return


150px-ME3_Anderson_Character_Shot4. David Anderson (Human, ME 1, 2 & 3)

Anderson was surely one of the major characters in the trilogy finale and he helped Shepard reaching the Crucible room, thus saving the whole galaxy from perishing. However, his heroic acts cost him his own life and as so, he won’t be coming back from the grave.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 3/3 (APG) + 3/3 (RPG) + 0/3 (SC) – 8 (Anderson Dies in ME3) = 0% – Anderson Won’t Return


150px-ME3_Diana_Allers5. Diana Allers (Human, ME 3)

This war journalist showed her great reporting skills during ME3. She reported most of the war episodes lead by Shepard and how this commander saved the galaxy from the reapers. She was never seen in previous games and her importance in ME3 was minimal, which may indicate that she won’t return at all.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 1/3 (APG) + 1/3 (RPG) + 0/3 (SC) = 33% – Diana Probably Won’t Return


150px-Dr_Chakwas_ME3_Character_Shot6. Dr. Karin Chakwas (Human, ME 1, 2 & 3)

The former medic of the Normandy has been around since the beginning of the journey. Chakwas has helped the whole crew with their injuries and other problems but her age may not allow her to make it to the fourth game.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 3/3 (APG) + 1/3 (RPG) + 0/3 (SC) – 1 (Death Possibility) = 42% – Dr. Chakwas Probably Won’t Return


150px-EDI_ME3_Character_Shot7. EDI (Robotic, ME 2 & 3)

EDI was designed to be an intelligent spy for Cerberus but things didn’t go as intended. This program developed self-awareness and stopped leaking information to its former creators in ME2. She achieved a certain degree of humanity and is now closer to a geth individual than to a computer program. I believe she’ll return, especially now that she has a robotic body.

Probability to Return: 3/3 (SL) + 2/3 (APG) + 3/3 (RPG) + 1/3 (SC) = 75% – EDI Will Most Likely Return


150px-Garrus_ME3_Character_Shot8. Garrus Vakarian (Turian, ME 1, 2 & 3)

Garrus has be a constant character and squad member in the ME series. Besides fighting along with Shepard he had a prestigious spot in the C-Sec Alliance ranks. I’m quite sure that Garrus will keep helping everyone rebuilding after the reaper invasion, even with Shepard gone he won’t abandon his values.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 3/3 (APG) + 3/3 (RPG) + 3/3 (SC) = 92% – Garrus Will Most Certainly Return


150px-Jack_ME3_boxshot9. Jack (Human, ME 2 & 3)

Jack has redeemed herself. She changed for the good of herself. From a super dangerous criminal she became a dedicated teacher taking care of biotic teenagers. She may be seen in the upcoming game, the galaxy will still need her services after all.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 2/3 (APG) + 2/3 (RPG) + 1/3 (SC) = 58% – Jack May Return


150px-Jacob_ME3_boxshot10. Jacob Taylor (Human, ME 2 & 3)

Jacob found true love with Dr. Brynn Cole and during ME3 he reveals that they’re going to have a baby and he wants to call him/her Shepard. It’s to be expected to see Jacob of his unborn child in the fourth game.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 2/3 (APG) + 2/3 (RPG) + 1/3 (SC) = 58% – Jacob May Return


150px-James_ME3_Character_Shot11. James Vega (Human, ME 3)

James is a popular character in several ME comics and his role in ME3 was quite decisive, especially when it came to defeat hostile forces in the field. He is a character with great humor, however I’m not sure he’ll return.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 1/3 (APG) + 2/3 (RPG) + 1/3 (SC) +1 (Active Member in Several ME Comics) = 58% – James May Return


150px-ME3_Joker_Character_Shot12. Jeff “Joker” Moreau (Human, ME 1, 2 & 3)

Joker has been the former pilot of the Normandy and he has always believed in Shepard. In the fourth game things will be really different but I’m confident that Joker will be driving some large and important ship across the galaxy.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 3/3 (APG) + 2/3 (RPG) + 0/3 (SC) +1 (Former Member of the Normandy) = 66% – Joker Will Probably Return


150px-Grunt_ME3_boxshot13. Grunt (Krogan, ME 2& 3)

Grunt is not an ordinary krogan, he has been genetically engineered to be a super soldier and he is really young. If any krogan from the old times are returning then Grunt is surely one of them.

Probability to Return: 3/3 (SL) + 2/3 (APG) + 1/3 (RPG) + 1/3 (SC) = 58% – Grunt May Return


150px-Kaidan_ME3_Character_Shot14. Kaidan Alenko (Human, ME 1, 2 & 3)

Similar to Ashley, Kaidan achieves a great status in the Alliance military, he gets Ashely’s story in case she dies in ME1, if she returns, then he has too as well. They have a great chance to return since they were permanent major characters in the previous games.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 3/3 (APG) + 2/3 (RPG) + 2/3 (SC) – 1 (Death Possibility) = 66% – Kaidan Will Probably Return


150px-Kasumi_ME3_boxshot15. Kasumi Goto (Human, ME 2 & 3)

Kasumi is the most enigmatic thief around the galaxy and her skills are enviable. Starting trouble is her main specialty, why would it be any different in ME4?

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 2/3 (APG) + 1/3 (RPG) + 0/3 (SC) + 2 (One of the Most Skilled Thieves in the Galaxy) = 50% – Kasumi May Return


150px-Kelly_me3_holding-bay_citadel16. Kelly Chambers (Human, ME 2 & 3)

Kelly used to help Commander Shepard organizing missions and collecting information, however she got kidnapped during ME2 and that caused her a great trauma, which made her refuse to return to Normandy in ME3. I doubt Kelly will return.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 2/3 (APG) + 1/3 (RPG) + 0/3 (SC) = 42% – Kelly Probably Won’t Return


150px-ME3_Liara_Character_Shot17. Liara T’Soni (Asari, ME 1, 2 & 3)

Defeating the reapers wouldn’t have been possible without Liara, she was the main brain behind the whole Crucible idea. She was probably the most important character in the whole series and if there are any old characters returning, Liara has to be one of them. Not just due to her loyalty and relevance but because she will be able to live long enough to see the galaxy rebuilding itself.

Probability to Return: 3/3 (SL) + 3/3 (APG) + 3/3 (RPG) + 2/3 (SC) = 92% – Liara Will Most Certainly Return


150px-Legion_Character_Shot18. Legion (Geth, ME 2 & 3)

Legion has been the geth anti-hero and the mediator between his race and the Alliance. The quarian-geth war may be over due to the eminence of a greater enemy but things may soon become what they once were. I believe Legion will be around in the next ME.

Probability to Return: 3/3 (SL) + 2/3 (APG) + 3/3 (RPG) + 1/3 (SC) = 75% – Legion Will Most Likely Return


150px-Miranda_ME3_boxshot19. Miranda Lawson (Human, ME 2 & 3)

Miranda has been genetically produced by her father to be the perfect woman at every level. His madness made Miranda hunt him down to save her sister and herself, she also left Cerberus and holds precious information. I’m not sure if Miranda will return.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 2/3 (APG) + 2/3 (RPG) + 1/3 (SC) = 58% – Miranda May Return


150px-Mordin_Character_Shot20. Mordin Solus (Salarian, ME 2& 3)

Mordin dedicated his whole life to science and experimentations and he convinced himself he would save the krogan race from extinction or at least save them from the deadly illness casted on them. This ambition required too much and Mordin paid it with his own life.

Probability to Return: 1/3 (SL) + 2/3 (APG) + 3/3 (RPG) + 1/3 (SC) (- 7 Mordin Dies in ME3) = 0% – Mordin Won’t Return


150px-Morinth_Character_Shot21. Morinth (Asari, ME 2 & 3)

It’s not really clear about what happens to Morinth case she doesn’t die in ME1, one thing is certain she is a psychopath and she won’t be doing any good in case she returns.

Probability to Return: 3/3 (SL) + 1/3 (APG) + 1/3 (RPG) + 1/3 (SC) – 1 (Death Possibility) = 42% – Morinth Probably Won’t Return


150px-Samara_ME3_boxshot22. Samara (Asari, ME 2 & 3)

Samara has been a judicator for centuries and she ensures that justice and glory will triumph all across the galaxy. She has decent chances to return in the upcoming game.

Probability to Return: 3/3 (SL) + 2/3 (APG) + 1/3 (RPG) + 1/3 (SC) – 1 (Death Possibility) = 50% – Samara May Return


150px-Tali_ME3_Character_Shot23. Tali’Zorah nar Rayya (Quarian, ME 1, 2 & 3)

Tali is a quarian tech specialist and she never feared any enemy. She has fought everything and everyone, even her own. Her strength and dedication to what’s just and right will probably grant her a free sit in the upcoming ME.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 3/3 (APG) + 3/3 (RPG) + 3/3 (SC) = 92% – Tali Will Most Certainly Return


150px-Thane_ME3_boxshot24. Thane Krios (Drell, ME 2 & 3)

Thane was a strong character in ME2, however the Kepral’s Syndrome slowly took over his body and during ME3 Thane end up dying. Sadly, he won’t return.

Probability to Return: 1/3 (SL) + 2/3 (APG) + 1/3 (RPG) + 1/3 (SC) (- 5 Thane Dies in ME3) = 0% – Thane Won’t Return


150px-Wrex_pimpin_boxshot25. Urdnot Wrex (Krogan, ME 2 & 3)

Urdnot Wrex is like a cat with infinite lives, even though he had many chances to meet his end, he still came back in ME3, which means he could perfectly return in ME4.

Probability to Return: 3/3 (SL) + 3/3 (APG) + 2/3 (RPG) + 0/3 (SC) (- 3 Death Possibility) = 50% – Wrex May Return


150px-Zaeed_ME3_boxshot26. Zaeed Massani (Human, ME 2 & 3)

Zaeed is a renowned mercenary and bounty hunter, his loyalty lies nowhere. As long as you have a great amount of coin, then your wishes shall be granted. Zaeed can perfectly return under his own conditions and brand of work.

Probability to Return: 2/3 (SL) + 2/3 (APG) + 1/3 (RPG) + 0/3 (SC) = 50% – Zaeed May Return